simond.io

I'm swimming a meet on 4/4 and figured it would be fun to bet on my times. If this works, we can implement it in the future for Chia's half iron man or Bird's shotgun or other things we find fun.

Everyone gets $5 without approval (ie. without venmoing) but I will consider all bets to be real and will pay out accordingly. You can bid up to $50 (venmo me first). The odds reflect probability based on a skew-normal distribution centered on my best guess of what I'll go. Odds will change every time a bet is made and you can use "Betting History" to see who is betting and how the odds are changing. I will freeze betting before my event and input the final time when I have it.

I capped the odds at ~20:1 and ~7.5:1 for under and over, but I'm still a little nervous about getting destroyed. Good thing I gave the house a 5% edge! If anyone else wants to be banker and claim the edge, be my guest.

If this page really glitches out I don't want to be on the hook for hundreds of dollars, but I will do my best to be fair to the bettors.

If I DQ, I will pay out based on my actual time or pay back 2:1 on your over bet initial investment, whichever is higher for you. So to be clear: if you bet $1 on the over for +660 and I go faster but DQ, I'll pay out $2. If I DQ and go slower, you'll get the $6.60.

If I don't swim (injury, unforseen circumstance) I will refund any bettors.